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Export turnovers of rubber, coffee and pepper are expected to fall due to low demand since global economic prospects still seem gloomy in 2012, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

The export revenue of rubber could drop to about $1.2 billion from $3.3 billion last year due to decreasing demand, though export volume may exceed 880,000 tons.

Regarding pepper exports, estimate export volume and value are approximately 86,000 tons and $619 million, down 30 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

Coffee exports are also on the same boat with 1 million tons and $2 billion, down around 17 percent and 26 percent in volume and value respectively.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Vietnam's coffee production in 2011-2012 season may reach about 18.5 million bags (approximately 1.11 million tons), down 5 percent compared to the previous season’s output.

As the world coffee price declined, the price of coffee in the country also slipped to VND38.2 million a ton in early January.

A market research team of the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) has also forecast that Vietnam's exports in 2012 would face a decline due to the global economic situation.

ANZ said Vietnam’s exports are in the downward trend in the context of declining world demand and commodity prices leveling off.

Export growth in the last quarter of 2011 decreased 28.4 percent year on year and 39.7 percent quarter by quarter.

The decline occurred in all segments.

Compared with the third quarter, even export growth was down 8.2 percent, signaling a rough time ahead in 2012, said ANZ.

In the fourth quarter, rice exports posted the biggest drop in the group of key export commodities, while crude oil exports rose 29.2 percent over the same period in 2010 after making a record 119.7 percent export growth in the third quarter of 2011.

In the shoes and electronics industries, export volumes increased while decreased in the garment and textiles sectors.

Exports to ASEAN countries increased sharply, but exports to U.S. declined. Exports to the EU and China are quite stable.

In Q4/2011, imports declined in all areas by 17.2 percent over the same period of 2010 after rising 28.6 percent in the previous quarter.

The trend of import growth is also forecast to decrease in 2012.

Among the primary group of imported goods, steel imports in the fourth quarter dropped due to decline in the construction sector. The value of imports of the chemical industry and electric power is also reduced.

However, oil and crude oil imports make an exception with a 73.3 percent rise in value, compared with 53 percent in the third quarter, while import volume increased 25.7 percent, compared with a 2.5 percent decrease in the third quarter.

Regarding the origin of import goods, growth of imports from Japan is was the lowest last year, while imports from Korea rose the highest. Chinese goods continue to make up the highest rate of import, accounting for 28 percent of import products.

Tuoitre Online